Relationship between transport demand and economic growth: Dynamic analysis using the ARDL model

Relationship between transport demand and economic growth: Dynamic analysis using the ARDL model

  • Alex Flores ,

Keywords:

transportation demand, economic growth, limits tests, ARDL

Abstract

The objective of this article is to analyze the relationship between transport demand and economic growth in Peru. To do this, the non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto is carried out, followed by the estimation of an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) that analyzes the demand variables of the airport, rail and port infrastructure, as well as the paved kilometers of roads to national level with economic growth. The results show that it is economic growth that drives transport demand, with the exception of airport demand, where a two-way causal relationship was found between passenger and cargo demand with economic growth. In this way, Faced with a 1% increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the demand for airport cargo increases by 0.728%, the demand for airport passengers by 2.536%, those for paved kilometers of roads by 1.324%; and the demand for rail passengers as well as the demand for port cargo increased by 0.571% and 1.243%, respectively. For its part, a 1% increase in airport cargo demand generates a 0.778% increase in GDP, while a 1% increase in passenger demand leads to a 0.334% increase in GDP. On the other hand, evidence was found that Public-Private Associations on roads have generated a positive and significant impact on the economy. and the demand for rail passengers as well as the demand for port cargo increased by 0.571% and 1.243%, respectively. For its part, a 1% increase in airport cargo demand generates a 0.778% increase in GDP, while a 1% increase in passenger demand leads to a 0.334% increase in GDP. On the other hand, evidence was found that Public-Private Associations on roads have generated a positive and significant impact on the economy. and the demand for rail passengers as well as the demand for port cargo increased by 0.571% and 1.243%, respectively. For its part, a 1% increase in airport cargo demand generates a 0.778% increase in GDP, while a 1% increase in passenger demand leads to a 0.334% increase in GDP. On the other hand, evidence was found that Public-Private Associations on roads have generated a positive and significant impact on the economy.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *