Análisis de la viabilidad de la utilización de índices comerciales de concesionarios de automóviles como indicadores predictores de crisis económicas: estudio de caso comparativo de doble entrada

Análisis de la viabilidad de la utilización de índices comerciales de concesionarios de automóviles como indicadores predictores de crisis económicas: estudio de caso comparativo de doble entrada

  • Oscar-Luis Gutiérrez-Aragón,Joan-Francesc Fondevila-Gascón,y Pedro Mir-Bernal ,

Abstract

In the present research we make a comparative study in detail of the evolution of several commercial indicators linked to the activity of the car dealers located in territories economically depressed during the crises of 1993 and 2008, as well as an analysis of the evolution in the same periods of its financial results and of various socioeconomic variables, at national and local levels, that could affect its activity. It is concluded that the observation and systematic analysis of the deterioration of these data in the pre-crisis phases should help to predict the coming of an economic crisis that will affect to other economic sectors and more favoured geographical areas.

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