Efectos y canales de transmisión del tipo de cambio sobre la producción sectorial en Colombia

Efectos y canales de transmisión del tipo de cambio sobre la producción sectorial en Colombia

  • Jorge David Quintero Otero, Johan Ruíz Celis ,

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of exchange rate on production in Colombia´s economic sectors for the period 2000-2015. In order to achieve this goal, a panel data regression model is estimated using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) approach. This
technique modifies least squares to account for endogeneity and serial correlation effects that result from cointegration between variables. This research also tries to identify the demand and supply channels that are relevant in the transmission of the effects of exchange rate on sectoral production. The results show that the exchange rate has a significant and positive effect on production in Colombia with an elasticity around 0,7, and the construction and mining sectors being the most responsive to changes in the exchange rate. It was also found that the level of international trade (aggregate demand channel) is the main explanation for the
sectoral differences in the impact of the exchange rate on production.

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