¿La incertidumbre política afecta a la inversión en el Ibex 35?

¿La incertidumbre política afecta a la inversión en el Ibex 35?

  • Beatriz García Costa,Laura García Costa,y Raúl Gómez Martínez ,

Abstract

In this paper we present the main results of the study “Does political uncertainty affect investment in the Ibex 35?” The main objective of this study has been the creation of a model that determines if uncertainty affects stock market investment. The aim of this paper is
to analyze if uncertainly can influence on Ibex 35 evolution. Because of that, we made an econometric analysis using historical series of Ibex quotes and the different valuations collected in the barometer made by the Center for Sociological Research whose refer to the assessment of current political and economic of Spain situation. For to study the impact of European and National uncertainty, it has been analyzed the results extracted from the Global Uncertainty Index. This index is constructed quarterly, using frequency counts of the word “uncertainty”. The main conclusion of this study is uncertainly affects to risk aversion level of investors and therefore, behavior of investors is not as rational as requires perfect market efficiency. It is concluded that the decision-making of investors is conditioned by investors mood which is affected by the political situation at the time they carry out the investment.

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