Relación entre la demanda de transporte y el crecimiento económico: Análisis dinámico mediante el uso del modelo ARDL

Relación entre la demanda de transporte y el crecimiento económico: Análisis dinámico mediante el uso del modelo ARDL

  • Alex Flores,y Víctor Chang ,

Abstract

The objective of this article is to analyze the relationship and measure the impact between transport demand and economic growth in Peru. For this purpose, the procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto for Granger’s non-causality test followed by the estimation
of an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) is applied. Results show that in most cases is economic growth which drives transport demand with the exception of airport demand where a bidirectional causal relationship was found. In this way, given a 1% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the demand for airport cargo increases by 0.728%, the demand for airport passengers by 2,536%, paving kilometers of roads by 1,324%, the demand for rail passengers at 0.571% and the demand for port cargo at 1.243%. On the other hand, given a 1% increase in airport cargo demand, GDP increases by 0.778%; while in the face of a 1% increase in passenger
demand, GDP increases by 0.334%.

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