Determinantes de estabilidad cambiaria en países miembros y candidatos de la Unión Europea: un análisis basado en algoritmos genéticos

Determinantes de estabilidad cambiaria en países miembros y candidatos de la Unión Europea: un análisis basado en algoritmos genéticos

  • María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, y Eduardo Acosta-González ,

Abstract

In this work, a study is made on the main factors that can determine the possibility that a country decides to adopt and maintain a de facto fixed exchange rate system, by analysing the economies of 17 countries from the European Union. As a measure of robustness, three alternatives of study variable were considered, as well as contrasting the sensitivity of the results obtained using different forecasting models. Using this methodology of genetic algorithms, a large group of explanatory variables is examined based on first, second, third, and fourth generation models. Added to these, were variables of a political nature, confidence, expectations, and institutional nature, with the aim of evaluating if it improves the explanatory capacity of exchange rate stability. Among the higher impact factors, the group of variables that measure competiveness clearly stand out, due to their repeated presence in the different models, as well as due to their predictive power. Within this group, true exchange rate shows special significance, as well the harmonised consumer price index of the country of reference, which in our case is the Eurozone. Other variables highlighted but to a lesser extent are, the M1 monetary aggregate, central parity, the confidence in the European institutions, the expectations of the agents, parliamentary ideology, and the freedom of political rights.

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