Causas de la informalidad laboral en Montería, Colombia. Un modelo econométrico Probit

Abstract

This article aims to determine the explanatory factors of informal workers in the city of Montería in 2018, for which a binary Probit econometric model will be estimated using information collected through the Large Integrated Household Survey applied by the National Administrative Department of Statistics in the third quarter of that year. The empirical results reveal that the variables education, experience, being head of household or married are statistically significant at confidence levels above 95% and that additional years of education and experience reduce the probability that an employed individual belongs to the informal sector in Montería, which also occurs when the worker is head of household or married; however, the worker’s sex variable, while it may have a marginal effect on informality, was not statistically significant at the same confidence level. The state as a whole, therefore, must formulate policies to achieve greater coverage of higher education, especially among the poorest and most vulnerable population, as well as to make effective the programs of first employment and re-education for the population over 45 years of age.