Predictability and self-similarity in demand maturity of tourist destinations: The case of Tenerife

Abstract

This work aims to explore the behavior of a mature island tourist destination, Tenerife, according to the Autoregressive Fractional Differencing Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model. This behavior will be compared to several other destinations, in an increasing geographical scale. Relevant lessons will arise for policy making at the short and long run. Predictability seems to be available but only for a limited horizon. Self similarity across geographic level seems to arise from the results. These findings complement previous conceptualizations like classic TALC (tourism area life cycle) based on long term predictability.